On Agriculture

Thomas Malthus is often remembered for his prediction that population growth would eventually outpace agricultural production, leading to food shortages. However, technological innovations have so far disproven his prediction.

Agriculture is a form of engineered calorie production. Farmed land has greater harvestable calorie density than nature provides on unengineered land. Agriculture naturally began whenever and wherever population densities approached a Malthusian threshold. Over time, agriculture has progressively adopted improvements such as the use of metal tools in the Bronze Age, the domestication of animals and crop hybridization during the Green Revolution, and chemical land treatment in the 20th century, each contributing to increased population densities. That has brought us to where we are today.

What can we predict from this history?

Despite favorable trends globally, some regions such as Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Yemen, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Indonesia continue to experience exponential growth in population density and potential decreasing arable land due to urbanization and climate change. These places are at risk of food insecurity, even with the best available agricultural techniques. Despite an aggregate global abundance of food, challenges in transportation infrastructure and the limitations of charitable efforts have proven insufficient to prevent food insecurity in many regions. To achieve food security globally will require further innovation in agricultural engineering.

The field of engineering most promising to provide food security is genetic engineering. With a reduced use of plant pesticides and animal hormones and antibiotics, genetically engineered plants and synthetically grown meat will be healthier than current mass food sources. Furthermore, increased yields of crop land and reduced food and waste processing for animals will be conducive to preserving the natural environment. Within a decade, these genetic technologies will be widely used.

As predicted in research reports from sources such as McKinsey and Schmidt Futures, innovation in genetic technologies is both necessary and destined to produce great value to humanity. Therefore, gene tech is a sector ripe for ethical and favorable investment returns.